prediction claim
The speaker believes that algorithmic progress would allow a model trained today with GPT-3-level compute to reach approximately the capability of the best model from about three years earlier.
Ryan Greenblatt · Ryan Greenblatt – What happens once AI can automate AI research? · 11 Aug 2026
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“My understanding is based on how algorithmic progress works,”
“we'd be able to train a model.”
“train a model that's as good as the best model we had perhaps around three years ago.”Play from 18:41Report a misattribution
75%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
90%importance to the conversation
96%confidence the claim was read correctly