4 sources healthy · latest episode 9 Nov 2026
prediction claim

The speaker's model is that superintelligence exceeding Elon Musk's optimization ability could dedicate a separate copy full-time to each of about 10,000 rocket-supply-chain parts, substantially accelerating optimization.

Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“I mean, that is kind of my model is that we have something which is smarter than Elon Musk, better at optimizing things than Elon Musk. We have like 10,000 parts in a rocket supply chain.”
“Those parts can Elon personally yell at people to optimize.”
“We could have a different copy of the superintelligence optimizing every single part full time.”
“I think that's just a really big speed up.”
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