AI safety concerns span empirical realities and theoretical scenarios; some capabilities that were theoretical the previous year, including models’ cyber capabilities, have become real, and some developments can be predicted with confidence over the next six months.

“there's basically a spectrum of reality to like empirical reality to theoretical, you know, scenarios.”

“totally a theoretical thing last year is like a reality which is like the cyber capabilities of these models for example so it's not to discount the theoretical stuff but we have to be clear that there's you know real empirical stuff that's happening and that we can predict you know with some you know confidence will be happening in the next six months and then there is like you know maximal theoretical stuff”