The speaker estimates that a model trained today with GPT-3-level compute would probably be moderately better than GPT-4.

“So I think that right now we'd be able to train a version of GPT-3 that's probably somewhat better than GPT-4 is basically what we'd see probably a yeah like a moderate amount better than GPT-4 and I think that's about right and that roughly lines up with what with how algorithmic progress has worked basically the story would end up being that to get five years of AI progress you're probably going to need around I would say like”