descriptive claim
The speaker estimates that major AI capability unlocks have occurred roughly every three years, corresponding to about every three orders of magnitude of compute scaling.
Tamay Besiroglu · AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu · 17 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“But it takes, you know, that happened on the order of once every three years or so, or maybe one every three orders of magnitude of compute scaling.”Play from 5:01Report a misattribution
65%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
85%importance to the conversation
94%confidence the claim was read correctly