prediction claim
The speaker suggested that if training-run costs continued rising at the same pace, they could reach $500 billion by 2030, following an increase of about 2.5 orders of magnitude over five years.
Unidentified speaker · Three Red Lines We're About to Cross Toward AGI (Daniel Kokotajlo, Gary Marcus, Dan Hendrycks) · 24 Jun 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“you know if it goes at the same pace what was the biggest training run in in 2020 was like what like three million dollars something like that you know four five million dollars so so they've gone up by like two and a half orders of magnitude in five years there was another two and a half orders of magnitude we're doing a 500 billion dollar training run in 2030 like like”Play from 50:50Report a misattribution
55%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
90%importance to the conversation
88%confidence the claim was read correctly