The speaker recommends prioritizing accurate prediction of the future as a first approximation, because beginning with an effort to steer it can muddle reasoning and encourage wishful thinking.

“much they are and i think that's to a first approximation we should focus on accurately predicting the future um and then in some cases we'll find it in a situation where we can steer the future but if you if you if you come at it trying to steer the future you're going to get all muddled and you're going to basically fall to wishful wishful thinking um basically so i think you start with just trying to accurately predict the future and then you try to shift it towards the better futures and i think that's what we're doing”