4 sources healthy · latest episode 9 Nov 2026
descriptive claim

A controller may have excellent expected performance while retaining a single very large error or failure case.

Alexander Mattick · Why Scaling Prediction Cannot Create Intelligence - Alexander Mattick · 21 Sep 2026

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“Because we cannot give like Alan-finity control, uh like Alan-finity guarantees. So because everything is sampling, sampling and kind of absolute uh maximal errors don't really play well with uh one another. You can have uh a control which in in expectation is really really nice, but has one really really huge failure case.”
“But so on average something which tracks it perfectly and has one huge uh error where kind of the robot clocks you on the head is completely the same as one thing which kind of just slightly wanders around. And in fact this is this nice paper about uh what was it called like deep reune ex uh training deep reune networks to uniform accuracy is intractable or something like put into Google, you'll find it. But”
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