prediction claim
SPEAKER_00 says that if the intelligence-explosion view is correct, a model specification will be an especially important document in human history.
Dwarkesh Patel · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“just how contingent things turned out on a single what exactly did they mean when they said general welfare and why is this comma the comma being here instead of there um the spec in the grand scheme of”
“things is going to be an even more sort of important document in human history at least if you buy this intelligence explosion view which we've gone through the debates on that so”Play from 1:59:45Report a misattribution
70%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
90%importance to the conversation
90%confidence the claim was read correctly