4 sources healthy · latest episode 9 Nov 2026
causal claim

Tuning reward-function weights can very likely cause a constraint threshold to be exceeded accidentally, in part because the coefficients are difficult to reason about.

Alexander Mattick · Why Scaling Prediction Cannot Create Intelligence - Alexander Mattick · 21 Sep 2026

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“And if you try to do this with like the the effective tuning, effectively there's a very high likelihood that you have accidentally something which goes above the the threshold. It's e especially since it's oftentimes really really difficult to think about these these coefficients. The second thing, uh the second big thing is you get”
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