Even under a maximally uncertain prior spread from current compute levels to 10^45 floating-point operations, the speaker considers reaching 10^45 in the next few years a non-negligible possibility and reaching it by the end of the decade decently plausible.

“orders of magnitude from where we are now to 10 to the 45 there'd be like you know a non-negligible amount that it's going to happen in the next few years and so like even on priors you should think it like decently plausible that it could happen by the end of the decade and then you should update your prior based on the actual evidence which i'll now get to so the actual evidence i would say let's look at agentic coding benchmarks that seems to me to be um”