4 sources healthy · latest episode 9 Nov 2026
prediction claim

Computer use or long-term computer agency might, like reasoning, be unlocked with a relatively small fraction of total compute.

Dwarkesh Patel · AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu · 17 Apr 2025

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“that are spent on rl right now in these models is a small fraction of total compute again like reasoning seems like complicated and then you just like do one percent of compute and it gets you that why not think that computer use or long-term agency on computer use is a similar thing”
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