4 sources healthy · latest episode 9 Nov 2026
descriptive claim

An expected cost of 25 can result from half of trajectories costing zero and half costing 50, but this outcome distribution is not always desirable.

Alexander Mattick · Why Scaling Prediction Cannot Create Intelligence - Alexander Mattick · 21 Sep 2026

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“Then it could be that it has fifty trajectories, of course zero, and then fifty of course fifty. So it averages out to twenty five. But it's not necessarily what you always want. On the other hand, for something like the uh the Open A_V_ five case, it would be exactly what you want. Right, you want to have let's say some uh games where exactly you are like every one is in one lane and then some games where it's like the normal distributed amount.”
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