The speaker rejects the claim that people have consistently been too optimistic about the pace of AI progress.

“Three GPT-4 came out and there were things that GPT-3 or 4 or whichever one of them it was did that it did in six months that they were still predicting like five or ten years from. So I'm sure Daniel is going to have a more detailed answer but I absolutely reject the premise that everybody has always been too optimistic.”