Savlar4 sources healthy · latest episode 15 Oct 2026
descriptive claim

A researcher involved in the Navier–Stokes effort said his comfortable AI-forecasting horizon had shortened from 12 months to three months.

Unidentified speaker · Noam Brown – Agent swarms, alignment, & recursive self-improvement · 17 Sept 2026

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“I was just talking to somebody yesterday who was working on the Navier-Stokes effort and he was telling me that like, he used to say it's really hard to predict.”
“where ai would be in 12 months you know if somebody asked him like oh where's where things going he'd feel comfortable making predictions for like the next 12 months but beyond that you know he's just like i don't know and now he's saying like he just doesn't feel comfortable making predictions beyond three months so it is it is really true that yeah things are going things are going very fast right now”
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