4 sources healthy · latest episode 9 Nov 2026
causal claim

A plan is very unlikely to succeed if its proponents have no conception of how it could lead to victory.

Thomas Larsen · AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen · 8 Sep 2026

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“There's just no way. But if you have sort of no like no concept of how like your initial plans might result in victory.”
“in victory it's like very unlikely they'll actually succeed um and so i sort of think of like ai 207 was sort of like our our attempt to just”
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A plan is very unlikely to succeed if its proponents have no conception of how … · Savlar