The speaker says the participants' forecasts are closer than people may assume: one concentrates probability at five years out and later, while the other assigns some probability to two or three years out, and both assign some probability to 2045.

“forecasting even there we're not probably as far apart as maybe people thought that we were right so you know i i push all of my probability mass to five years out and have basically none before and you've got some at three years out or two years out that i don't we both have some out at 2045 i have some even past then and you may or may not um”