4 sources healthy · latest episode 9 Nov 2026
prediction claim

The speaker believes a discrete jump of the kind being proposed has no historical precedent in the statistics he can find and probably will not occur.

Andrej Karpathy · Andrej Karpathy — AGI is still a decade away · 17 Oct 2025

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“but I still think that you're presupposing some discrete jump, some unlock that we're waiting to claim.”
“And I still think you're presupposing some discrete jump that I think has basically no historical precedent that I can't find in any of the statistics and that I think probably won't happen.”
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0.70how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
0.85importance to the conversation
0.94confidence the claim was read correctly