prediction claim
The speaker believes a discrete jump of the kind being proposed has no historical precedent in the statistics he can find and probably will not occur.
Andrej Karpathy · Andrej Karpathy — AGI is still a decade away · 17 Oct 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“but I still think that you're presupposing some discrete jump, some unlock that we're waiting to claim.”
“And I still think you're presupposing some discrete jump that I think has basically no historical precedent that I can't find in any of the statistics and that I think probably won't happen.”Play from 1:29:36Report a misattribution
70%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
85%importance to the conversation
94%confidence the claim was read correctly