prediction claim
The forecast places the algorithmic-progress multiplier at five times at the start of 2027 or by March 2027; the speaker is unsure of the exact timing.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“We start with, I can't remember if it's literally start with or by March or something,”
“a five times multiplier for algorithmic progress.”Play from 8:13Report a misattribution
70%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
85%importance to the conversation
90%confidence the claim was read correctly