prediction claim
The speaker thinks his AI timelines would lengthen substantially if AI progress encountered a genuine barrier that had been correctly predicted by theory.
Daniel Kokotajlo · AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen · 8 Sept 2026
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“this feels like a real barrier.”
“This feels like something we're starting to like feel the elephant.”
“We're like running up against some sort of like real actual barrier that was correctly predicted by theory by some people that was going to be there.”
“actually running up against some sort of barrier like that, I think would would lengthen my timelines quite a lot.”Play from 1:25:27Report a misattribution
85%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
85%importance to the conversation
95%confidence the claim was read correctly