prediction claim
The AI 2040 Plan A scenario has human-level AI across all disciplines during the 2030s, but not AI substantially beyond human level during that period.
Daniel Kokotajlo · AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen · 8 Sept 2026
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“everything changes dramatically like roughly what happens in our scenario is instead of doing an intelligence explosion there's an international deal to ban intelligence explosions and to not have ais recursively self-improving and so they sort of end up pausing at roughly top human level with ais at least for several years eventually they get the super intelligence in particular in 2040 they get the super intelligence but there's this like period during the 2030s where they basically have”
“human-level AIs across all the disciplines.”
“but nothing super beyond that but even that alone like you just do the economic modeling and it's kind of like you have this population of colleagues in the cloud that are you know excellent workers that can substitute for humans at basically everything except that they're cheaper than humans they're faster than humans and they don't take 20 years to reproduce instead instead they double every year you know and so as a result the whole world is just completely transformed by the late 2030s”Play from 36:09Report a misattribution
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