descriptive claim
A metric comparing reality with the AI 2027 scenario indicated that events were progressing at roughly 75% of the scenario's speed: broadly on track, but somewhat slower.
Daniel Kokotajlo · AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen · 8 Sept 2026
In their words
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“solved so far and compare them to reality and we we track this metric of like you know how much of the distance has been crossed by reality compared to how much is crossed in the scenario and in that way we can get this overall sense of like how fast are things going compared to in the scenario and the top line number is something like 75 percent speed so basically things are on track but just going like a little bit slower um”Play from 5:37Report a misattribution
90%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
75%importance to the conversation
94%confidence the claim was read correctly