4 sources healthy · latest episode 9 Nov 2026
descriptive claim

The team recognizes that its forecast could be either an underestimate or an overestimate.

Daniel Kokotajlo · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“We, there are a bunch of ways in which we could be underestimating and there are a bunch of ways in which we could be overestimating.”
23:16Report a misattribution
0.95how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
0.55importance to the conversation
0.98confidence the claim was read correctly
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