The speaker was not very confident in the roughly fivefold estimate for algorithmic progress in the hypothetical; the actual factor could be lower or higher, and it did not describe overall progress.

“people do in order to like test out ideas really quickly before they do the big training runs would happen much faster because they're just like lickety split being spit out um i'm not very confident in that 5x number it could be lower it could be higher but that was sort of like roughly what we were guessing our 5x by the way is for the algorithmic progress part not for the overall thing”