prediction claim
The speaker said that a slowdown in AI progress would shift substantial probability toward later AGI timelines, and that reaching AGI in that regime could take quite a long time.
Unidentified speaker · Three Red Lines We're About to Cross Toward AGI (Daniel Kokotajlo, Gary Marcus, Dan Hendrycks) · 24 Jun 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“And then that sort of stretches out a lot of probability mass into the future because that's a very different world.”
“It's like, you know, it could take forever,”
“not forever, it could take a quite long time to get to AGI once you're in that regime.”Play from 51:34Report a misattribution
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