The speaker describes chess-bot ELO as increasing roughly linearly from the 1980s, then undergoing a sharp transition around human-expert performance, after which human experts no longer won against AIs.

“simulations which incentivize getting better at not only AI R&D but generally at science so this is the thing that all the labs targeting many startups are targeting or another intuition pump is if you look at the ELO score of chess bots since the 80s there's just like a very linear increase in ELO over time but there's this huge discontinuity as they cross the human range of human experts always win against AIs to like human experts never win against AIs”