The speaker says many people extrapolate recent AI progress to predict automation by 2027 or 2030, but argues that automation timing cannot literally be inferred by extrapolating such a trend line.

“so i think that a lot of people have this intuition that progress has been very fast they like just look at the trend lines and just like extrapolate like obviously it's going to happen in like i don't know 2027 or 2030 or whatever it's very bullish and obviously that's not a thing you can literally do like there isn't like a”