prediction claim
If the approximately tenfold annual trend continued, the speaker projected that AI capability would progress from IMO gold-level tasks taking about 1.5 hours to tasks representing about 15 hours of human work the next year.
Unidentified speaker · Noam Brown – Agent swarms, alignment, & recursive self-improvement · 17 Sept 2026
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“If we are following this trend line of like 10x every year,”
“we go from IMO gold,”
“which is taking an hour and a half to next year,”
“15 hours.”Play from 25:37Report a misattribution
75%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
80%importance to the conversation
94%confidence the claim was read correctly