4 sources healthy · latest episode 9 Nov 2026
prediction claim

Daniel Kokotajlo says an intelligence explosion could counteract the kind of stagnation considered in models of recent economic or technological stagnation.

Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“Of course, there are models of whether that's stagnated recently or what's going on here.”
“We can talk about those. We can talk about why we expect for the intelligence explosion to be an antidote to that kind of stagnation, but nothing we're saying is that different from what has already happened.”
30:56Report a misattribution
0.70how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
0.80importance to the conversation
0.91confidence the claim was read correctly