causal claim
The speaker argues that longshoremen earn excessive pay and retain jobs that could readily be automated because their union has political influence and has secured job guarantees.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“So things like the longshoremen union we have now where they're making way more money than they should be even though they could all easily be automated away because they're a political block and they've gotten somebody in power to say yes we guarantee you'll have this job almost as a feudal thief forever.”Play from 2:17:38Report a misattribution
90%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
75%importance to the conversation
94%confidence the claim was read correctly