prediction claim

A one-year timeline for superintelligences to gain practical experience is considered plausible partly because their population could be about one million, roughly comparable to the size of the scientific industry, though perhaps somewhat smaller.

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“One, you're going to have something like a million of them.”

“And quantitatively, that's like comparable in size to the existing scientific industry,”

“I would say,”

“like, maybe it's a bit smaller, but it's not like dramatically smaller.”

70%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true

80%importance to the conversation

95%confidence the claim was read correctly