The speaker estimates that most of the timeline probability distribution lies beyond 10 years.

“the kinds of numbers that you gave were like three or four for this one three or four for that one and i think like really you know my estimate is really 10 years is most of the distribution is past 10 years it's because i see several problems that like we'd be really lucky if we told let's say the visual intelligence problems in three or four years we'd be really lucky if we solved the um the video kind of”