prediction claim
SPEAKER_00 expects AI 2027 to become widely popular because of its quality, not primarily because Daniel Kokotajlo has built an audience over time.
Dwarkesh Patel · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
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“in a different tier almost but things like that and even things are an order of magnitude smaller than that will literally just get read by everybody who matters and i mean like literally everybody um and i hope i mean i expect this to happen with ai 2027 when it comes out but daniel i guess you kind of have but you've been building your reputation in this specific community and i expect the ai 2027 just like really good and i expect it'll just like”
“like blow up in a way that isn't downstream of you having built up an audience over yours yeah”Play from 2:50:28Report a misattribution
80%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
70%importance to the conversation
90%confidence the claim was read correctly