causal claim
Producing around one million units would probably lead to substantial efficiency improvements in the production process.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“processes proportional to doubling the amount of copies produced so if you're producing a million or something you're probably getting very very good at it”Play from 54:29Report a misattribution
65%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
75%importance to the conversation
94%confidence the claim was read correctly