descriptive claim
Daniel Kokotajlo wrote “What 2026 Looks Like” in 2021 as a forecast of AI progress over the following five years.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“The thing that gives me optimism is Daniel, back in 2021,”
“wrote kind of the prequel to this scenario called What 2026 Looks Like. It's his forecast for the next five years of AI progress.”Play from 1:47Report a misattribution
99%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
65%importance to the conversation
96%confidence the claim was read correctly