prediction claim
The speaker is uncertain how his life might have differed if he had started a blog around 2000.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“I feel like if I had started a blog in 2000 or something,”Play from 3:01:19Report a misattribution
45%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
30%importance to the conversation
90%confidence the claim was read correctly