prediction claim
Although uncertain, the speakers' scenario depicts an intense political wake-up occurring mostly during 2027.
Daniel Kokotajlo · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“to be clear, we are uncertain about this, but in our story, we depict this sort of intense wake up happening over the course of 2027,”
“mostly.”Play from 1:41:56Report a misattribution
55%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
80%importance to the conversation
98%confidence the claim was read correctly