descriptive claim
The speaker reports that Metaculus's forecast timeline moved from about 2050 in 2020 to about 2040 two or three years ago and to about 2030 at the time of the conversation.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“We can look at Metaculous. Metaculous, I think their timeline was 2040.”
“It was like 2050 back in 2020.”
“It gradually went down to like 2040, two or three years ago.”
“Now it's at 2030,”Play from 13:08Report a misattribution
80%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
70%importance to the conversation
90%confidence the claim was read correctly