definition claim
The R&D progress multiplier measures how many months of progress AI assistance yields relative to one month of progress without AI assistance.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“So how many months of progress?”
“Without the AIs, you get in one month of progress with all of these new AIs helping with the intelligence explosion.”Play from 8:02Report a misattribution
70%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
75%importance to the conversation
78%confidence the claim was read correctly