The speaker would revise his view if a correctly identified AI limitation, such as data efficiency or non-verifiable tasks, remained essentially unimproved for several years, so that 2029 AIs were no better at fuzzy non-verifiable tasks than 2025 AIs.

“And one thing that would change my mind is if someone was actually right about one of these limitations,”

“like if someone right now is going around saying that like.”

“yeah data efficiency or like non-verifiable tasks or something like that is the current limitation and then like several years go by and it becomes clear that there's like very basically no progress on overcoming that limitation”

“and that the AIs of like 20, 29 are like no better at, at the fuzzy non-verifiable tasks than the AIs of 2025,”