prediction claim
The speaker estimates a roughly 20% chance that events will unfold as quickly as the scenario predicts.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“So I think if we get the ASI and it does end up with a Dyson sphere in five years,”
“and by the way, I think there's only like...”
“20% chance things go as fast as our scenario says.”Play from 1:23:02Report a misattribution
90%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
80%importance to the conversation
95%confidence the claim was read correctly