4 sources healthy · latest episode 9 Nov 2026
opinion claim

The speaker says it is difficult to assess how likely intelligence is to evolve, and suggests considering how long a process has existed or remained bottlenecked.

Andrej Karpathy · Andrej Karpathy — AGI is still a decade away · 17 Oct 2025

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“Yes, basically it's so hard to tell, right,”
“with Yeah any of this stuff.”
“I guess you can base it a little bit on how long something has existed or how long it feels like something has been bottlenecked.”
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