The speaker believes that AI progress forecasting cannot be done in a fully closed-form way.

“like there's one way to extrapolate on the basis of things like compute.”

“And I think you've done a masterful job of doing that as well as can be done and acknowledging that there's still an element of pulling things out of one's behind,”

“which is true on, you know, any account,”

“like nobody can really do this in a closed form way.”