Savlar4 sources healthy · latest episode 15 Oct 2026
descriptive claim

A cost distribution with half of trajectories at zero and half at 50 has an expected cost of 25, but may not always be desirable.

Alexander Mattick · Why Scaling Prediction Cannot Create Intelligence - Alexander Mattick · 21 Sept 2026

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“If you say it should be less than 25 cost.”
“Then it could be that it has fifty trajectories, of course zero, and then fifty of course fifty. So it averages out to twenty five. But it's not necessarily what you always want. On the other hand, for something like the uh the Open A_V_ five case, it would be exactly what you want. Right, you want to have let's say some uh games where exactly you are like every one is in one lane and then some games where it's like the normal distributed amount.”
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