prediction claim
The speaker thinks that in 20 years a billion-parameter model could converse productively, behave more like a human, and recognize when it should look up a factual answer it does not know.
Andrej Karpathy · Andrej Karpathy — AGI is still a decade away · 17 Oct 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“building parameters it should be already like like if you talk to a building parameter model i think in 20 years you can actually have a very productive conversation it thinks um and it's a lot more like a human but if you ask it some factual question might have to look it up but it knows that it doesn't know and it might have to look it up and it will just do all the reasonable things”Play from 59:37Report a misattribution
65%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
85%importance to the conversation
80%confidence the claim was read correctly