4 sources healthy · latest episode 9 Nov 2026
opinion claim

Daniel Kokotajlo acknowledges that historical hyperbola models are unusual and theoretical, while noting that some such models have appeared to fit long periods of history.

Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“So I realize all of these historical hyperbolas are also kind of weird,”
“also kind of theoretical,”
“but I don't think we're saying anything that there isn't models for which have previously seemed to work for long historical periods.”
32:30Report a misattribution
0.80how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
0.70importance to the conversation
0.94confidence the claim was read correctly