opinion claim
Daniel Kokotajlo acknowledges that historical hyperbola models are unusual and theoretical, while noting that some such models have appeared to fit long periods of history.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“So I realize all of these historical hyperbolas are also kind of weird,”
“also kind of theoretical,”
“but I don't think we're saying anything that there isn't models for which have previously seemed to work for long historical periods.”Play from 32:30Report a misattribution
80%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
70%importance to the conversation
94%confidence the claim was read correctly