prediction claim
The speaker characterizes 2025 and 2026 in the forecast as having no especially notable developments and trends broadly similar to current ones.
Daniel Kokotajlo · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“Another answer to the same question you asked is basically 2026.”
“six nothing super interesting or 25 nothing super interesting happen uh more or less similar trends to what we're seeing my”Play from 8:35Report a misattribution
75%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
60%importance to the conversation
78%confidence the claim was read correctly