causal claim
Some war-game scenarios assume perfect lie detectors are invented and that this development disrupts treaties.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“There have been several war games that hinge on,”
“oh, we just invented perfect lie detectors.”
“Now all of our treaties are messed up.”Play from 2:20:31Report a misattribution
85%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
75%importance to the conversation
94%confidence the claim was read correctly