prediction claim
The speaker says other analyses suggest Ehrlich might have won the commodity-price bet had it been made in another decade.
Dwarkesh Patel · Why smarter AI models could drive up compute prices 10x · 3 Aug 2026
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“Other analysis has shown that if that bet had been made in a different decade,”
“Erlich might well have won.”Play from 7:27Report a misattribution
55%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
65%importance to the conversation
90%confidence the claim was read correctly