prediction claim
The speaker predicted that without a radical transformation—such as AI-powered automation of the economy by the end of this decade—AI progress will at least slow, and may enter an AI winter.
Unidentified speaker · Three Red Lines We're About to Cross Toward AGI (Daniel Kokotajlo, Gary Marcus, Dan Hendrycks) · 24 Jun 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“If you don't get to some sort of radical transformation,”
“if you don't get to some sort of crazy AI-powered automation of the economy by the end of this decade,”
“then there's going to be a bit of an AI winter.”
“There's going to be, at the very least, a sort of tapering off of the pace of progress.”Play from 51:20Report a misattribution
85%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
95%importance to the conversation
94%confidence the claim was read correctly